Could Earley and Woodley MP seat be a political battleground?

This week, new proposed parliamentary constituency boundaries were published by the Boundary Commission of England, which redrew the political map of Berkshire.

Perhaps the most notable change was the proposal of a new constituency called Earley and Woodley, which would incorporate the two towns and the Whitley and Church wards of Reading borough.

READ MORE: Whitley not in Reading - new proposed changes to Reading constituency boundaries

This has prompted a big political question: could the proposed Earley and Woodley constituency be a battleground between the three main parties?

Although the Conservatives are the most popular party in Berkshire, with a commanding presence in Woodley in particular, a Labour party activist has hopes that the seat could go there way in a future General Election.

Andy Croy, a former councillor and Labour campaign co-ordinator, was hopeful about Labour’s chances, and lampooned suggestions the Liberal Democrats could do well.

Mr Croy said: “It would be a fight between Labour and the Conservatives. If it stays as it is, we effectively have eight Labour councillors in this new constituency: six representing the Reading wards of Whitley and Church, and two Labour councillors in my former ward of Bulmershe & Whitegates.

“The Liberal Democrats have none in Woodley or those Reading areas. I suspect once people in places like Shinfield and Earley realise that the only way to kick out the Conservatives is by voting Labour that's how I expect they'll vote.

“If it stands it would be a Labour vs Conservative battleground, and a quite important one, the type Labour would have to win if it forms a Government.”

Mr Croy confessed on Twitter that he stayed up until 4am on Tuesday morning to find out what the constituency boundary changes were.

Earley is competitive between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. Results in Lower Earley were particularly positive for the Liberal Democrats. with the Hawkedon ward of the The Lower Earley ward of Hawkedon is held entirely by the party.

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Clive Jones, the recently re-elected councillor for Hawkedon ward, on the prospect of a future victory in Earley and Woodley, said: “I think it could end up being a pretty good seat for Liberal Democrats because we are very strong in Earley.

"The thing about these proposals is that they're based on local communities more than they were previously. People in Woodley, Earley and Shinfield are similar to each other and have a lot in common.

“The current Wokingham constituency stretches 20 miles from Wescott in Wokingham town to Burghfield, Sulhamstead and Mortimer. These proposals are based much more on local communities. Looking at election results going back several years it’s going to be a pretty close fight between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.

“Looking over the next 20 years, Labour are not in the running.

“The first election held with these changes will be an interesting one.”

Dislodging the Conservatives could prove difficult. Although local elections are not a perfect reflection of what could happen in a General Election, the Conservatives do hold a majority of seats in both Earley and Woodley.

Earley is represented by in three wards on Wokingham Borough Council: Hawkedon, Hillside and Maiden Erlegh each of these has three councillors to represent them.

Of those, five are Liberal Democrats and four are Conservatives.

Voters in Woodley are rather strong Conservative supporters. At the local elections, the Bulmershe & Whitegates ward, which straddles Earley and Woodley, flipped from Labour to the Conservatives. Bulmershe & Whitegates now has two Labour councillors and one Conservative councillor.

READ MORE: ‘Serious concerns’ – Reading MP reacts to proposed constituency boundary changes

Woodley ‘proper’ is represented by three wards – Loddon, which has three councillors, Coronation, and South Lake, which both have two councillors to represent them.

Of those, all seven are Conservatives. If the proposed constituency is formed, activists of the three parties would have a fight on their hands.

Councillors Alison Swaddle and Keith Baker, both Conservative representatives for Coronation ward, decline requests for a comment.

Cllr Jones serves as a vice chairman of South Central Region Liberal Democrats. Mr Croy and Cllr Jones are veterans of General Election campaigns. Both of them lost their bids to become Wokingham’s MP in the 2017 General Election, while standing for their respective parties. Mr Croy came in 2nd place and Cllr Jones came in 3rd place behind incumbent Conservative Sir John Redwood.