Coronavirus infection rates in Bracknell Forest could double in matter of weeks

An interactive map shows that the risk of infection has risen rapidly in the Bracknell Forest area but is highly likely to increase in coming weeks.

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Across the borough, the current rolling rate of new cases is 105.3 per 100,000 of the population per week - while in nearby Wokingham Borough, the infection rate is less, with 85.9 cases per 100,000 of the population per week.

On the interactive map, Bracknell is predicted to remain a hotspot in coming weeks, with a 36 per cent chance of a having 200 cases per 100,000 of the population per week by November 15.

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By Sunday, November 8, it predicts a 36 per cent chance that Bracknell will have more than 200 cases per 100,000 population.

A probability of 0 per cent is given for the likelihood that there will be more than 500 cases per 100,000 population in the same time frame.

There is an 87 per cent chance there will be more than 100 cases per 100,000 population in Bracknell Forest by next week.

Imperial College London said: “For future weeks, we give probabilities based on our model, which assumes a situation in which no change in interventions (e.g. local lockdowns) occur. To define weeks we use specimen dates, ie the day on which tests are taken.”

Data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths is used along with “mathematical modelling” to report on the probability that a local authority will see a rise in infection rates in the coming weeks.

At the time of writing, Bracknell Forest remains in the medium category, tier 1 - with the national lockdown looming on Thursday.

A projection into next week's cases is only based on the map data and is subject to change depending on the effect the national lockdown has as of November 5.